03-24-2024 MLB Preview - Flipbook - Page 13
MLB ’24
Sunday, March 24, 2024 13
SEASON PREVIEW
fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting as
a second-year starter, and out-of-nowhere finds such as Ryan O’Hearn and
Yennier Cano. The midseason acquisition
of outfielder Aaron Hicks played a factor
as well.
“A lot of people have speculated that
ZiPS didn’t do well last year with the
Orioles from the main projection because
of young players, but it really wasn’t the
young players that surprised ZiPS,” Szymborski said. “It was those older fringy players like a post-injury Aaron Hicks. ZiPS did
not see his season coming. Ryan O’Hearn,
ZiPS did not see his season coming after he
pretty much failed to hit at all in the majors
before that, and even not that amazing in
the minors either.”
Estimated win totals are also largely
dependent on the division in which each
team plays. The AL East is perhaps the
deepest division in baseball. FanGraphs
Projections
from Page 12
“The challenge isn’t necessarily to be
correct about the middle as much as being
incorrect the correct amount of times, as
weird as that sentence is to parse,” Szymborski said.
Baltimore’s breakout season exceeded
PECOTA’s median expectations by 28
wins and beat ZiPS’ by 21. A variety of
factors contributed to the surprising
leap. The Orioles were relatively healthy,
having five position players appear in at
least 140 games and three starters record
30 or more starts. They also went 30-16 in
one-run games, which helped boost their
win total in games that, on average, could
have gone either way.
The projections did underestimate a
few players, namely Bradish, who placed
gives all five teams at least a 25% chance
of making the playoffs; no other division
in baseball has their fifth-place team
even touching 20%. If a team such as the
Boston Red Sox can’t overcome its pitching deficiencies and decides to sell at
the trade deadline, games against them
would become a lot more winnable for the
Orioles down the stretch.
Projections, by design, are relatively
conservative estimates of how a player’s
season, and thus his team’s season, will go.
An MVP-caliber season isn’t a 50th-percentile outcome for any player, even the
league’s best.
With an up-and-coming roster that
has the potential for big breakout seasons
up and down the lineup card, there’s still
room for the Orioles to beat their projections in 2024 by having their young core
take steps forward. For example, top prospect Jackson Holliday is projected to be
about a league-average player by both
systems, high praise for a 20-year-old with
a relatively short minor league career. If
he lives up to his superstar potential right
away, something history says is much rarer
than not, the Orioles could pick up a few
wins right there. A couple of other players
make jumps of their own and suddenly a
100-win season looks a lot more plausible.
“I think the Orioles are a great young
team and I would not be surprised in the
slightest if they, in those bell curves, if they
ended up toward the right side of it,” Judge
said. “Teams that are on the way up tend to
have players who make big jumps. By definition, that’s not an average outcome. It’s
a 90th-percentile outcome, but it’s more
likely to happen when you have young,
ascending, highly talented players. So, I
have no qualms with anyone who thinks
they’re going to win at least 90 games or
even 95 games.”
ORIOLES 2024
Home
MARCH/APRIL
25
24
31 LAA
1:35
1 KC
7
1:35
8
PIT
Away
26
6:35
27
2 KC
9 BOS
6:35
3
JULY
28 LAA 3:05
KC
1:05 4
29
5
2:10 10 BOS 7:10 11 BOS
7:10
Dates and times are subject to change.
1
2 SEA
9:40
3 SEA
OAK 4:07 8
9 CHC
6:35
10 CHC 6:35
11 CHC 6:35
12 NYY 7:05 13 NYY 4:05
17
18
19 TEX
8:05 20 TEX
7:05
25 MIA 12:10
26 SD
7:05
27 SD
4:05
1 CLE
6:40
2
CLE
7:10
3
7:15
7:07 8 TOR
7:07
9
TB
30 LAA 4:05
PIT
12 MIL
4:12
6
PIT
4:05
7
7:05 13 MIL
4:05
14 NYY 1:35
15
16
10:10
4
SEA
4:10 5
OAK 9:40 6
OAK 4:07
ALL-STAR BREAK
14 MIL
MIL
1:35
1:05
21 KC
2:10 22 LAA 9:38 23 LAA
28 OAK
1:35
15 MIN
6:35
16 MIN 6:35
17 MIN
9:38 24 LAA
1:05
18
19 KC
4:07 25
7:40
20 KC
7:10
26 OAK 7:05 27 OAK 4:05
23 MIA
28 SD
1:35 29 TOR 6:35
30 TOR 6:35 31 TOR 12:35
6:40 24 MIA 6:40
AUGUST
1
CIN
2:35 22
29 NYY 6:35 30 NYY 6:35
MAY
5
21 TEX
4:10 6
7
WSH 6:45 8
NYY 6:35 2 NYY
1:05
WSH 6:45 9
13 TOR 6:35 14 TOR 6:35 15 TOR 12:35 16
12 AZ
1:35
19 SEA
1:35 20 STL 7:45
26 CWS 2:10 27 BOS 1:05
21 STL
7:45 22 STL
1:15
28 BOS 6:35 29 BOS 6:35
3
CIN
6:40
10 AZ
7:05 11
AZ
4:05
4 CLE
1:40 5
6 TOR
17 SEA
7:05 18 SEA
4:05
11 TB
1:40 12
13 WSH 6:35 14 WSH 6:35 15 BOS
18 BOS
1:35
19 NYM 7:10
20 NYM 7:10
26
27 LAD 10:10 28 LAD 10:10 29 LAD 10:10 30 COL 8:40 31 COL
23 CWS 7:40 24 CWS 7:40 25 CWS 2:10
31 TB
30
CLE
6:10 4
CIN
7:05
25 HOU 1:35
7:07
7
TOR
21 NYM 1:10
6:35 16 BOS
22 HOU 7:15
6:50
10 TB
7:05 17 BOS
7:15
4:05
23 HOU 7:05 24 HOU 4:05
8:10
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
JUNE
3 TOR
2
TB
1:35
9
TB
1:40 10 TB
16 PHI
1:35
23 HOU
2:10 24 CLE
30 TEX
1:35
Source: Orioles
7:07
4
6:50 11
17
6:35
TOR 7:07
ATL
5
TOR 7:07
6
TOR 1:07
6:35 12 ATL 6:35 13 ATL
7
TB
1:05 14 PHI
1
TB
4:05
1
COL
3:10
2
6:50 8
TB
4:10
8
TB
1:35
9 BOS
4:05
15 DET
1:40 16
17 SF
22 HOU 4:10
22 DET
1:35
23
29 TEX
29 MIN 3:10
30
7:05 15 PHI
18 NYY 7:05
19 NYY 7:05 20 NYY 4:05 21 HOU 8:10
25 CLE 6:35
26 CLE
6:35
27 TEX 6:35 28 TEX 7:05
7:15
CWS 1:05 3
7:10
6
CWS 6:35 4 CWS 6:35 5
10 BOS 7:10
11
BOS 7:10
7:05
7
TB
4:05
13 DET
6:40 14 DET
6:10
1:05
20 DET
7:05 21 DET
4:05
24 NYY 7:05 25 NYY 7:05 26 NYY 7:05
27 MIN
8:10 28 MIN
2:10
6:35 18 SF
12
TB
6:35 19 SF
BALTIMORE SUN GRAPHIC