James Jan-Feb 2024 web - Flipbook - Page 31
Publisher’s Note Coming to Apple Podcasts and insideradvantage.com in January
is Polling Plus co-hosted by Matt Towery and Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly.
Anyone who says they know how the
2024 elections will turn out, doesn’t
know. With the leading GOP candidate for president on trial in four
jurisdictions (including Georgia), and
the incumbent president with horrific
approval ratings and legal troubles
in his own family, anything could
happen. So rather than write an essay
about what might happen, let me
share some thoughts on what could
happen and how pollsters will try, or
not try, to capture it all.
Presidential elections are not like
midterms. In 2020 InsiderAdvantage
was ranked by RealClearPolitics as
the number one pollster in the nation
among hundreds, for accuracy in the
“battleground” states. But for the 2022
midterms we ranked number 15 among
all pollsters. In the RealClearPolitics
rankling of all pollsters for the period
of 2016-2022, we were right behind The
New York Times and ahead of all other
network, cable or print news organizations. But you can bet, after 2022 our
model that we use to weight our polls
will be changing. That is because Democrats have become far more sophisticated and aggressive in registering
voters and gathering their votes. If you
doubt what I am saying, consider that
early into his administration, President Joe Biden signed an Executive
Order requiring every federal department and agency to implement a plan
to register and “educate” what we refer
to in the industry as “low propensity”
voters. Last year The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights,
along with scores of left- leaning organizations, including Stacey Abrams’
Fair Fight, wrote cabinet members to
provide additional suggestions about
how to register voters to “save democracy.” Republicans have countered
nationally with what appears to be a
half-hearted initiative to register more
voters and bank votes earlier. But as
of now, virtually every pollster I know
plans to expect off-the-chart turnout
by demographics that traditionally
vote Democrat. When the federal government becomes a turnout machine
for one party, the other should be
ready to lose. Only a huge GOP wave
election (Reagan 1980 or Bush 2004)
can counter the Democrat turnout
machine.
Will it be Biden? Or will it matter?
The current national polling shows
Biden’s approval ratings crashing and
him losing to both Donald Trump and
Nikki Haley. CNN polling in December showed Trump beating Biden in
Georgia by five points. I suspect it is
neck and neck.
By the way, Democrats are better than Republicans at circling the
wagons to protect their own. Just
consider the disparate treatments
of former U.S. Rep. George Santos in
the GOP-led House and the endlessly-in-trouble Sen. Bob Menendez in
the Democrat-controlled Senate.
It will likely take an indirect or
even direct shove from the Democrats’ true leader, former President
Barack Obama, to force Biden to
make a last-minute announcement
that he won’t be running. And if
Biden does make such an announcement, the Democratic nominee must
be Vice President Kamala Harris.
But Republicans, don’t rejoice. The
reason it has to be Harris is because
Democrats can’t pass over an African-American vice president as their
nominee without losing the support
of their most important base— African-American women. And a Harris
nomination would energize that base
in November.
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