James Jan-Feb 2024 web - Flipbook - Page 32
Will it be Trump or not? More than
likely yes, particularly with the December Selzer poll showing him wiping everyone out in Iowa. But nearly
40 percent of voters in New Hampshire are registered as unaffiliated.
They can vote in the GOP primary
there. Candidates Chris Christie and
Nikki Haley are aiming to capture
that vote. If Christie were to abandon his efforts and endorse Haley,
the former South Carolina governor
could pull off an upset or at least
come close to Trump in that early
contest. Of course, Haley would then
have to pull off an upset in South
Carolina where, ironically, she is not
feeling the love. The governor, lieutenant governor, and House speaker
in Haley’s home state (along with
most legislators) are not supporting
her. If Trump wins Iowa and South
Carolina, he’s likely the nominee.
Of course, there are all those
criminal trials. Polling done early last
year suggested that support for the
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JAMES
JANUA RY/F E B RUA RY 2024
former president would plummet if
he were to be indicted in any jurisdiction/venue. Well, four indictments
later Trump’s numbers have grown
immensely. Some polling suggests
that if he is found guilty in one of his
many criminal trials, that he will lose
support. But that may well be unlikely. We won’t know until we cross
that bridge, if it gets crossed before
November.
The U.S. House may go Democrat
while the Senate may turn to Republican control. A combination of
skilled map drawing and aggressive
lawyering have created six more
Democrat-leaning House of Representatives districts for the coming
cycle. And Republicans in that chamber have struggled to have much of
their efforts be reported beyond the
conservative news echo chamber.
The Senate, on the other hand, offers
competitive races in places like Ohio,
South Dakota and Michigan and one
guaranteed pick up in West Virginia.
But the GOP now takes on not just
the Democrats, but a mainstream
media which has become unabashedly more partisan both in what it
reports and omits. Like the tired old
elephant, Republican and conservative donors have missed the boat to
place ads on social media and network affiliates to show their side of
the news cycle. Now they will have to
rely on their traditional election time
ads which get lost in the sea of campaign rubbish. And it could be a clean
sweep for the Democrats if they hold
the White House.
Now let’s analyze the “Twilight
Zone.” What wars, pestilence and grief
will emerge out of the blue? And how
many third-party candidates will there
be? You can expect the unexpected.
And those of us who poll these races
will be holding on for dear life. •