2022 LSU Gumbo - Book - Page 87
Two LSU professors collaborated to create more
accurate hurricane forecast models specific to the Gulf
of Mexico. Their findings will enable forecasters to
create more specific predictions of severe hurricane
seasons tailored to Louisiana and surrounding regions.
The study was published by professors Paul Miller
and Jill Trepanier. Miller conducted the study while
Trepanier double-checked the data to ensure his
interpretations were correct.
Miller analyzed various metrics used to help
forecast hurricanes in the Atlantic and applied them
specifically to the Gulf of Mexico. Miller felt that
hurricane forecasts needed to be tailored to the Gulf as
opposed to the entire Atlantic to help Southern states
better prepare for hurricane season.
“You can have a storm that forms out in the middle
of the Atlantic, that spins around for a few days and
then dissipates without ever touching land,” said
Miller. “The goal of our project, or what we attempted
to do, was say, ‘hey we’re concerned about the Gulf
of Mexico’, because if a storm gets into the Gulf of
Mexico, it’s really hard for there to be a tropical storm
or a hurricane in The Gulf that doesn’t hit land.”
Numerous variables contribute to accurately
predicting hurricane seasons, such as: sea surface
temperature, atmospheric humidity and wind shear.
Many of the variables that are used to forecast for the
Atlantic turned out to be relatively ineffective when
used to forecast for The Gulf. Miller and Trepanier’s
study found that the best variable for predicting
hurricanes was the temperature 20,000 feet above The
Gulf. The higher the temperature, the more likely it
is that there will be an active hurricane season in the
South.
The professors took this variable and applied it to
previous hurricane seasons to see how well it could
predict them and found that their model was highly
accurate.
“If you can get a model to accurately predict what’s
already happened, it makes you more comfortable
using it to predict what hasn’t happened yet,” said
Trepanier.
The model does have its limits. The professors
found that it wasn’t as good at predicting average or
below average hurricane seasons, but it was extremely
accurate at predicting above average seasons. Miller
argues that the forecasts would be most needed for
severe seasons, so the purpose of the study is still
fulfilled.
Forecasts specifically tailored to the Gulf Coast
will allow for earlier preparations to be made amongst
local and state officials and will likely be taken more
seriously than ones that predict an area as broad as the
Atlantic Ocean.
Hurricane forecasts across all metrics have
continued to grow in accuracy and precision as years go
on and knowledge increases.
“Our five-day forecasts are substantially better
than even a three-day forecast was in 1990,” National
Weather Service Meteorologist Danielle Manning said.
Photos by Matthew Perschall
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