22 AUGUST 2019 - Page 16



16 FARM WEEK
NEWS
NOVEMBER 09 2017
Chicken
market
growth
continues
A
T
HE Irish poultry
market has remained
resilient over the past
year with total value sales
estimated at €832 million,
while in Northern Ireland
sales have risen by two
per cent from £253 million
in 2015 to £258 million in
2016, according to Geoff
Simmons, Senior Lecturer
in Marketing at Queen’s
University Management
School.
Prof Simmons was
speaking at the NI
Poultry Conference at
CAFRE’s Loughry Campus,
Cookstown, where he said
that, looking ahead to the
2017-22 period, growth is
expected to continue in
NI/ROI, driven by chicken
due to its relatively low
price point, versatility and
wide availability across
supermarkets.
Chicken dominates the
Irish/UK poultry market
accounting for 87 per cent
of the total, with sales
estimated at €807.7 million
for 2017. Turkey represents
eight per cent of the total
poultry market accounting
for €66.6.
However, according to
Prof. Simmons, it is likely
that the Irish and UK
poultry market will face
some hurdles which will
remain contingent upon
decisions made during the
two-year Brexit negotiations
regarding trade agreements
and tariffs. He said:
“During this time poultry
producers are advised to
market the locality of their
products in order to gain
support from consumers in
their domestic market.”
He added: “Discounters
continue to increase their
market share. Consumers
are predicted to shop more
at discounters and switch
from branded to own-label
food during this current
uncertain political climate.
Some 35 per cent of ROI and
24 per cent of NI consumers
ON CAMERA: Basil Bayne, Poultry Industry Education Trust, Philip
Lynch, R&D Hall Dublin, and Prof Geoff Simons, Queen’s University
Management School. FW45-02NB
say they buy own-label
meat, fish and poultry
products with these figures
expected to grow. He also
said that poultry and game
stand to benefit from health
concerns around red meat
following its identification
as a possible carcinogen.
Looking to the potential
of export markets, Prof
Simmons said: “Asian meat
demand will drive huge
increases in expenditure
and meat consumption.
There is exciting potential
for exporters who also
want to compete for market
share in the high value but
more stable markets of the
western world.
“There is a large and
growing population in
Asia, with a growing
appetite for meat, but
with huge variations in
production capability,
market segmentation and
purchasing power between
countries and regions.
All of these markets are
interesting but come
with a range of different
opportunities.
“Asia is adjusting to
imports, markets are
opening, and the need to
control meat price inflation
in most of these markets
is forcing a far more open
stance to imports than there
has ever been before.
“Pork and poultry are the
two main meats consumed
in Asian countries. This is
due to traditional, religious
and cultural preferences
but also the relative price
and quality when compared
to beef.
“Therefore, poultry and
pork remain the biggest
imports into the region,
predominantly from the US,
EU, Australia and Brazil,
although Asian countries
are increasingly looking at
other opportunities.
“There is generally
faster growth in poultry
consumption than pork due
to the relative price, but
this comes with occasional
hiatus from disease
outbreak. Imported meat
products will gain more
prominence amid food
safety concern such as
Avian Flu.”
Prof Simmons also said
that the high consumption
of white/brown meat and
offal in Asian-Pacific diets
opens opportunity for
exports.
In conclusion, Prof
Simmons painted a bright
picture for the future of the
poultry sector, saying:
q Despite an expected
increase in savvy shopping
behaviour, the outlook for
the UK/ Irish poultry sector
is positive as prices remain
competitive against other
proteins
q Unprepared poultry
products are the most
popular as they are able
to speak to consumers on
two levels; scratch cooking
and healthy eating, giving
consumers greater control
over their meal
q Less affluent consumers
prefer cheaper options
of prepared/processed
chicken
q Less fat, price and
convenience are the key
factors of buying poultry.
q Healthy eating, animal
welfare, traceability and
correct labelling are
important, particularly to
women.
N example of great success to other
primary industries, the global
chicken business continues to evolve
and grow in all regions, Gary Millar,
Hubbard’s International Business
Development Manager (Asia), told the NI
poultry conference.
Having studied at Greenmount College and
Aberdeen University, Gary worked for O’Kane
Poultry before joining Avigen and moving to
Hubbard in 2014. He is now based in Australia,
making the trip ‘home’ to speak at this year’s
conference.
He explained: “This growth is dependent on
the stage of market development, economic
improvement and export opportunity in
individual markets. At one end of the scale,
in countries with mature markets such as
Australia, consumption levels are high at more
than 46kgs per person per year and growth
continues at modest rates of no more than three
per cent per annum.
“Developing markets with typically much
lower current consumption levels are, however,
expected to grow much more rapidly over
the next decade, for example Indonesia and
Vietnam, where according to the OECD,
consumption levels are expected to grow by
15.8 per cent and 36.9 per cent, to levels of 6.3kg
and 12.7kgs per capita per year respectively.
“While some of this increased demand is
supplied from established export bases,
domestic production levels are also set to
grow in these markets as they ultimately strive
for self-sufficiency. Supporting this growth
in production necessitates modernisation of
independent, traditional, small family farms
to large sophisticated company owned or
contracted facilities, fully automated and
capable of producing larger numbers more
cheaply with the benefit of improved economies
of scale.”
Turning his attention to a growing UK market
where chicken meat production has increased
by 30 per cent since 2000, Mr Millar reminded
the audience that Northern Ireland’s poultry
sector has continued to grow strongly with total
poultry numbers recording an increase of 42 per
cent since 2000, impressive progression when
compared to the UK average where growth has
been less than two per cent in the same time
period.
He added: “This is testament to the
competitive local production efficiencies,
proactive approach of the domestic companies
and established knowledge base within the
Province which according to Rabobank is now
home to the EU’s fifth largest integrated poultry
producer, Moy Park.
“A cornerstone to the success of poultry
production is the genetic potential of the
TRIO: Thomas Gallagher, MSD, Christopher McHugh, Manor Farm, and Tom Hughes, Moy Park. FW45-05NB
Low grain prices on world market
G
GROUP: Staff from Skea Eggs, Sarah Hill, Andrea Cadden, Ruth Bleakley, Dale Shaw and Alan Hall.
FW45-03NB
Global ma
LOBAL stockpiles have kept grain prices
low but local producers have not felt the
full benefit of this due to the weakness
of sterling, according to Philip Lynch, trader for
R&H Hall in Dublin.
He told the poultry conference: “World grain
and soymeal markets remain at multi-year
lows as global stockpiles sit at comfortable
levels. Excellent harvests in the main
producing regions in recent seasons have
enabled world grain production to outpace still
growing demand. However with the US ethanol
industry in its mature phase, the world lacks a
significant grain demand growth driver.
“Coupled with this is the spectacular rise
of Black Sea and South American grain
production in the past five years, increasing
exportable surpluses in those origins.”
On soybeans he said: “In a similar fashion,
the major soybean producers have reaped
record harvests in recent seasons allowing
a significant replenishment of world stocks.
Against this is the enormous import appetite
from China for soybeans which tempers
market bearishness.”
As always weather patterns can disrupt
the markets and Mr Lynch added:
“Markets remain sensitive to a weather
threat in a major producing region but
present stock levels are a safety valve to
some extent.”
And of course the conference couldn’t pass
without a reference to Brexit with Mr Lynch
reflecting: “The distinct reduction in market
volatility is a marker of the relaxed attitude
that exists at present. Unfortunately however,
the Brexit-induced GBP£ weakness has
negated the opportunities of lower priced
global markets to the NI grain consumer in the
past 12 months.
“The future path of Brexit negotiations and
economic realities in the UK will ensure a
bumpy road ahead for the GBP£ and this is
one the key concerns for grain users.”

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