China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 104
China 2050 DREAM is based on the use of key macroeconomic and end-use drivers and
addresses end-use energy demand characteristics including sectoral patterns of energy
consumption, changes in subsectoral industrial output, trends in saturation and usage of
energy-using equipment, technological change including efficiency improvements, and links
between economic growth and energy demand. The DREAM model has a higher degree of
disaggregation of parameters affecting energy demand than the other major scenario models,
particularly global models.
The China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario presented in this chapter
assumes full adoption of the maximum shares of commercially available, cost-effective energy
efficiency and renewable energy supply by 2050.
Macroeconomic Drivers
China’s population is projected to grow until 2030 to about 1.44 billion (Table 3-1), and
afterwards to slowly decline to 1.37 billion by 2050. Over the same period, China’s urbanization
rate is projected to rise from 50% in 2010 to 78% in 2050.
The Chinese economy is projected to continue to grow, however, at a slower rate, with the
average growth of GDP declining from 7.6% annually from 2010-2020 to 2.9% annually from
2040-2050.
Table 3-1. Macroeconomic Drivers and Assumptions for China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
actual
Total Population (billions)
1.34
1.42
1.44
1.42
1.37
Urbanization Rate (% of Population)
50%
60%
68%
74%
78%
Decadal Annual Average GDP Growth Rate (%)
7.6%
5.9%
4.1%
2.9%
Sources: Energy Research Institute China General Equilibrium Economic Model, Reinventing Fire: China team
analysis
Appendix 2 provides detailed sectoral assumptions on activity growth, energy intensity
improvement, and fuel switching trends included in this scenario.
China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario Results
In the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario, primary energy
consumption peaks in 2029 at 5,400 million metric tons coal equivalent (Mtce). In 2050, China’s
primary energy consumption is 3,960 Mtce, which is about 10% below the country’s primary
energy consumption in 2015 (see Figure 3-1). The non-fossil share of primary energy continues
to grow, from 5% in 2015 to 29% in 2050, using the direct equivalent method consistent with
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