China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 108
Figure 3-4. China’s Power Generation Installed Capacity, China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous
Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Note: China’s geothermal installed capacity in 2018 was approximately 28 MW.
Similarly, generation from renewables and other non-fossil fuels replaces thermal generation in
the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement scenario. The model follows
environmental merit dispatch that prioritizes non-fossil generation before fossil generation, and
assumes recent stated policies on green dispatch will be fully implemented. By 2050, coal
generates 470 TWh and natural gas generates about 540 TWh out of more than 9500 TWh24
total. Generation from wind and solar in 2050 is about 20 times that in 2015; the share of wind
and solar generation of total power generation grows from 4% in 2015 to nearly 50% in 2050
(Figure 3-5). Including hydro, nuclear, and distributed solar PV, non-fossil electricity sources
generate 89% of China’s electricity in 2050, more than triple the 2015 level (Figure 3-6).
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Recent policies prioritizing non-fossil generation included State Council’s 2007 Detailed Rules for Implementing
Energy Saving Generation Dispatch, 2015 Opinions Regarding Further Deepening of Power Sector Reform and
national commitment to adopt “green dispatch” policy in June 2015.
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