China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 118
Given the already high efficiency of both water and rail as modes for freight transport, reliance
on both will continue to expand, along with continued electrification of the rail system, which
will serve to further reduce emissions as the power system continues to decarbonize (Figure 315). Air freight is fairly energy intensive per tkm hauled, but growth in rapid delivery demand
will increase its share of energy consumption over time from 3% in 2015 to 14% in 2050.
Figure 3-15. Freight Transport Final Energy Consumption by Mode, China Energy Outlookâs 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Passenger transport is driven primarily by increased urbanization and increased household
wealth translating into increased demand for mobility, particularly for private transport.
Electricity will increase its share of total passenger transportation energy use to 15% by 2050 as
the share of EVs rises to 38% of the total private car fleet and 22% of urban bus fleet (Figure 316). But petroleum, mainly gasoline, jet kerosene, and some diesel, will remain the dominant
fuel in use, even with a 60% decrease in the fuel intensity of internal combustion engine (ICE)
vehicles and nearly 30% decrease in fuel intensity of airplanes over the period. Natural gas, in
the form of CNG, will also increase over time, mainly for buses.
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