China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 119
Figure 3-16. Passenger Transport Final Energy Consumption by Fuel, China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Under the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario, the primary
provider of personal mobility will remain the personal automobile, but over the scenario
period, the predominance of ICE vehicles will give way to a steady increase in all-EVs. China is
currently discussing the idea of ending the sale of ICEs in favor of EVs, but no timeline has been
set. Even with an end to new ICE sales, it will take some time for the existing fleet of ICEs to
disappear absent directed policies to accelerate the transition. Road travel will account for the
majority of kilometers traveled with steady increases in both air and rail travel (Figure 3-17). By
2050, road travel will still account for 79% of total passenger transport energy consumption,
versus 19% for air and 2% for rail. Unlike in other large countries such as the U.S., it is expected
that Chinese travelers will largely forego air travel for distances less than 750 km owing to the
extensive build-out of the high-speed rail network. Even so, the relative inefficiency of air travel
leads to a doubling of energy use—all petroleum—for flying.
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