China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 124
Post-peak projections of CO2 emissions differ between two main groups of studies. The China
Energy Outlook, the State Grid, and CREO 2018 find rapid decline in CO2 emissions after 2030
while IEA, ExxonMobil, and ERI project general plateauing with slow declining emissions after
their projected 2025 peaks. While China Energy Outlook and State Grid’s 2025 CO2 emission
peak is more than 1 Gt higher than IEA and ExxonMobil’s CO2 peaks, both Outlooks’ projected
CO2 emissions reach virtually the same level as IEA and ExxonMobil by 2038. But by 2050, the
China Energy Outlook’s Continuous Improvement Scenario’s and CREO 2018’s projected
baseline CO2 emissions are much lower than the State Grid’s projected 2050 CO2 emissions,
despite similar levels in 2020 and peaking levels in 2025.
Non-Fossil Power Generation Share Comparison
The projected non-fossil share of total power generation in 2025 and 2030 are very similar
between the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario, the two IEA
scenarios, and the ExxonMobil outlook, ranging from 36% to 42% in 2025 and 38% to 43% in
2030 (Figure 3-20). In 2030, the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement
Scenario and IEA Stated Policies Scenario have virtually the same projected non-fossil power
generation share of 43%. In 2035, the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement
Scenario’s non-fossil generation share is lower than State Grid’s projected 60%. But by 2040,
the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario forecasts a much higher
non-fossil power generation share than the IEA and ExxonMobil outlooks, with a 10 percentage
point higher share than both the IEA Stated Policies Scenario and the ExxonMobil Outlook.
Similarly, the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario’s 2050 non-fossil
generation share of 92% is also much higher than State Grid’s baseline non-fossil generation
share of 78%.
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