China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 129
national energy demand. The CREO includes a Stated Policy Scenario based on China’s current
policies and targets, including meeting of its NDCs under the Paris Agreement. It also contains a
Below 2 Degree C Scenario that is based on carbon constraints for the energy systems
simulated from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report database.
In its CREO 2018, CNREC projects that China’s primary energy demand will peak around 2025
and begin to decline after. China’s final energy demand will peak three years later in 2028 at
3385 Mtce, and decline to 2907 Mtce by 2050. During the 2017 to 2050 period, end-use
electricity demand will nearly double and reach 11,355 TWh by 2050, and account for 51% of
total final energy consumption. Other fuel sources for meeting final energy consumption in
2050 include 6% from coal, 17% from oil, 9% from natural gas, 12% from district heating, 3%
from hydrogen, and 5% from direct renewable use. In the power sector, non-fossil share of
generation triples from 2015 to 2050, reaching 86% in the Stated Policies Scenario while coal
share declines to 11%. At the same time, wind generation rises from 328 TWh in 2016 to 1,801
TWh in 2030 and 5,955 TWh in 2050, accounting for a 53% share. Solar generation increases to
1,858 TWh in 2035 and 2,694 TWh by 2050, accounting for a 24% share. The rapid rise in
renewable generation is supported by significantly growing energy storage capacity, with 1.3
GW in 2020 increasing to nearly 468 GW by 2050. Final energy demand by sector will shift from
current shares of 60% in industry, 16% in transport, and 21% in buildings to 42% in industry,
24% in transport and 28% in buildings by 2050. In 2050, industrial final energy demand will only
be two-thirds of the 2016 level, with a total of 1,226 Mtce. In contrast, building final energy
demand will grow through 2030, when it peaks at 849 Mtce, a level that is 26% above current
levels, and decline slightly through 2050. Under the Stated Policies Scenario, CO2 emissions
peak at slightly higher than 10 GtCO2 around 2020 and decline rapidly to 4 GtCO2 in 2050.
China Energy Research Institute (ERI): Integrated Policy Assessment Model of China 2018
Results
China’s national government think-tank, the Energy Research Institute, has linked Integrated
Policy Assessment Model of China (IPAC) models that it uses to analyze global, national, and
regional energy and environmental policies. Although the IPAC model is not used to publish
annual outlooks, its modeling results are published periodically in scholarly reports and journal
papers. In a 2018 paper, the IPAC model was used to analyze five key scenarios, including the
baseline, Low Carbon, Enhanced Low Carbon, 2°C, and 1.5°C scenarios. The Low Carbon
scenario considers national policies and strategies as well as resulting enhanced technology
improvement, economic development changes, and shifts in consumer behavior. Under its Low
Carbon scenario, CO2 emissions are expected to peak around 2030 and then plateau at around
11 GtCO2 through 2050. Primary energy demand results were not available for the Low Carbon
scenario in this 2018 paper.
115