China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 105
the IPCC for converting primary electricity.22 The share of coal in total primary energy decreases
from 65% in 2015 to 28% in 2050, while the natural gas share grows from 6% in 2015 to 16% in
2050 and the oil share remains relatively stable at around 21% from 2015 through 2050.
Figure 3-1. China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Figure 3-2 shows the sectoral break-down of primary energy consumption from 2015 to 2050 in
the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario. With structural shift from
heavy industry to less energy-intensive industry, as well as energy efficiency improvement and
fuel switching, primary energy consumption for the industry sector peaks by 2025 at 2,790
Mtce. Although remaining the largest sector of energy consumption by 2050, the industry
sector share of total primary energy decreases from 59% in 2015 to 43% in 2050.
With continued growth in urbanization and increasing demand for better living quality, the
buildings sector primary energy share grows from 22% in 2015 to 27% in 2030. However, with
energy efficiency improvement and fuel switching, building primary energy use peaks in 2034 at
1,450 Mtce, and its share of total primary energy is slightly higher (at 30%) than the 2030 level
in 2050.
22
China 2050 DREAM uses the direct equivalent method (consistent with the IPCC) as the default for converting
primary electricity, rather than the Power Plant Coal Consumption (PPCC) method used in Chinese statistics. As a
result, the primary energy use presented here are lower than the Chinese equivalent calculated using PPCC. For
more details on differences between the two methods, see Lewis et al. 2015.
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