China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 106
FIGURE 3-2
Figure 3-2. China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption by Sector, China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Transportation contributes to a growing percentage of total primary energy consumption, from
17% in 2015 to 25% in 2050, due to rapid growth in private vehicle stock and increasing
demand for passenger and freight transport. From 2015 to 2030, total primary energy
consumption for transportation grows at an annual average rate of 2.4% before plateauing in
the early 2030s as a result of fuel economy improvement and fuel switching. Primary energy
use in the transportation sector peaks in 2035 with 1,080 Mtce, and declines slowly at an
average rate of 0.5% thereafter.
Electrification—particularly when the electric option substitutes for direct combustion of fuel at
greater efficiency at delivering energy services—is a key process to deliver energy savings and
emissions reductions as the electricity supply becomes increasingly decarbonized (more evident
from consideration of primary energy shown above). With accelerated electrification in the
industry, buildings, and transportation sectors, the electricity share of final energy increases
from 22% in 2015 to 40% in 2050 (Figure 3-3).
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