China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 107
Figure 3-3. China’s Final Energy Consumption23 by Fuel, China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous
Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
In the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario, China’s power system
more than triples in size, reaching over 4200 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity in 2050.
Decarbonizing the energy transformation sector (along with energy efficiency) is key to
reducing energy-related CO2 emissions, especially with the electrification in the energy end use
sectors. As shown in Figure 3-4, China’s power system structure fundamentally changes in this
scenario of continuous technological improvement as coal capacity is nearly replaced by cleaner
natural gas and non-fossil generation by 2050. This assumes limited new coal power plant
expansion in the near-term to avoid stranded coal assets and decreasing costs of wind and solar
power that make more renewable power capacity and generation possible. This is particularly
true around 2035, when the cost of renewables is expected to drop below the cost of existing
coal-fired generation. By 2050, coal capacity is projected to decline to 87 GW, accounting for
only 2% of total installed capacity. In contrast, wind and solar installed capacity reaches 2600
GW, which is over 15 times the total wind and solar capacity in 2015 and almost twice the
capacity of China’s current entire power system (Figure 3-4).
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Final energy consumption presented here is the total energy consumed by end-users. Primary energy
consumption presented earlier includes energy consumption of the energy sector itself and transformation and
distribution losses, allocated back to the demand sectors.
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