China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 110
Figure 3-7. China’s Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fuel, China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous
Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
With energy efficiency and fuel switching (especially electrification) in the energy end use
sectors and decarbonization of the power system, China’s CO2 emissions peaks in 2025 at a
level of 10,930 MtCO2 in the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario.
By 2050, China's total CO2 emissions decrease to 5,010 MtCO2, about 52% lower than 2015
levels (Figure 3-7).
In the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement scenario, CO2 emissions from the
industry sector peaks before 2019 (see Figure 3-8).25 The industrial sector share of total CO2
emissions continues to decrease, from 67% in 2015 to 50% by 2050. The decline in industrial
CO2 emissions is linked directly to fuel switching from coal toward cleaner fossil fuels and
electrification, as well as structural shift of production towards high value-added, less energyintensive industries.
25
Note that this modeling simulation result was based on model calibration to the latest available data, including
energy balance data through 2015 and industrial production data up through 2017. Due to recent stimulus-related
increases in industrial production and the time lag in national statistics reporting, particularly at the sectoral level,
this finding may need to be revisited when full-year 2019 data are available.
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