China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 112
Figure 3-9. Industry Final Energy Consumption by Sub-sector, China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Industry final energy consumption peaks by 2025 in the China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario, about ten years earlier than other end-use sectors, such as
residential and commercial buildings (see Figure 3-9). After 2025, industry final energy
consumption declines slightly at about 0.4% per year between 2025 and 2035. Industry final
energy consumption decreases more sharply, at about 2% per year, between 2035 and 2050.
This decrease can be traced back to reductions in the heavy, energy-intensive industries as a
result of structural shift, a slowdown in domestic demand for heavy industrial products such as
steel and cement, and significant improvements in energy efficiency reaching advanced
economies’ efficiency levels today. Energy use by the ferrous metals (e.g., crude steel) industry
decreases significantly, from contributing 37% of industry final energy use in 2015 to 21% in
2050. Energy use in non-metal mineral products (e.g., cement) industry decreases as well,
dropping from 18% in 2015 to 11% in 2050. The slowdown in both of these heavy industries can
be linked in large part to the slowdown in construction and infrastructure development as
population growth plateaus in the 2030s and urbanization slows. The share of chemical
materials and products industry increases from 19% to 22% due to increased short-term
demand for plastic products as population growth continues through 2030, but its absolute
amount of energy use decreases due to slowdown in all chemical production activity after 2030
and to efficiency gains. The shares of other subsectors, such as textiles, food and tobacco
sectors also increase, but the absolute amount of energy use decreases by 2050 primarily due
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