China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 113
to efficiency gains. At the same time, final energy use of subsectors such as machinery and
electric and electronic equipment increases at about 2% and 1% per year, respectively.
Figure 3-10. Industry Final Energy Consumption by Fuel, China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous
Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Note: other fuels include coal gas and coking products.
In the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario, industry final energy
consumption peaks by 2025, but the decline of the direct use of fossil fuels in industry begins
earlier, at around 2015 for coal and 2018 for petroleum (Figure 3-10) as a result of fuel
switching and increased electrification of industrial processes, particularly for the
manufacturing subsectors. The use of natural gas in industry continues to increase, and won’t
decline until 2042. Coal consumption in industry decreases sharply, from a decline of 2% per
year between 2015 and 2025, and further to a decrease of 3% per year between 2025 and
2050. The share of coal use in industry will decrease from 48% in 2015 to 30% in 2050. The
share of electricity consumption in industry increases from 30% in 2015 to 43% in 2050. The
absolute amount of electricity consumption also increases, with a peak of electricity
consumption in industry at around 2040, and declines slowly through 2050. The use of
purchased heat peaks at around 2040 as well.
Building sector energy use is driven by China’s continuous urbanization and people’s increasing
demand for better indoor comfort and better building services. Population in cities will increase
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