China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 114
from 0.7 billion in 2015 to 1.1 billion in 2050. China’s urban per capita living floor space will
increase from 35m2/person in 2015 to 46m2/person in 2050. Similarly, for commercial
buildings, the tertiary sector employee number and per employee floor space will increase from
413 million and 33 m2/person in 2015 to 475 million and 45 m2/person in 2050, respectively.
Thus, building floor space will continuously increase over time. Per floor space, energy demand
will also increase because of improving living standards. The cooling demand in residential and
commercial buildings will increase drastically from 2015 to 2050 across all different climate
zones in China. Heating load will also increase, especially in China’s transition climate zone (the
“Hot Summer Cold Winter” climate zone), due to the absence of district heating in that area in
the past and an increasing demand for improved thermal comfort in wintertime.
To control the sharp energy demand increase in the building sector, a series of energy efficiency
measures and policies are taken into consideration in the China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario. All new construction needs to meet the current national
and local energy efficiency standards requirements. The China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement scenario assumes that China will take significant efforts to
demonstrate and build ultra-low (or nearly zero) energy buildings, particularly in Northern
China where heating loads are the greatest. In Northern China, the scenario assumes that the
ultra-low energy new construction rate will increase from 0% in 2015 to 50% of the annual new
construction in 2050, compared to lower rates of 20% in the transition and 10% in the southern
climate zones. Retrofitting existing buildings is also important to improve the thermal integrity
of buildings, particularly for heating. The China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous
Improvement Scenario assumes that 75% of the entire country’s existing building stock built
before 2010 will be retrofitted in 2050, with a greater share of deep retrofits in Northern China
where heating demand is highest. Today’s cost-effective, high efficiency appliances will be
gradually adopted and increase to 100% adoption rate in 2050. Heating and cooling technology
efficiency will be improved in buildings. The average energy efficiency for district heating will
increase from current 69% to 81%. Air-conditioning energy efficiency will increase by 42%
based on its 2010 level.
Residential final energy consumption continues to rise through 2040, when it peaks under the
China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario (Figure 3-11). Growth in final
energy consumption slows after 2025, from an annual growth rate of 2.4% from 2015 to 2025,
to only 1.0% from 2025 to 2035. Future growth in residential energy consumption is driven
mainly by growing urban residential demand for cooling, appliances, cooking, and water
heating (Figure 3-12). Growth in demand for heating and cooling energy services is offset by
significantly improved building design for new buildings, including passive and near zero energy
design, and deep retrofits that dramatically improve building shell and insulation. Despite
efficiency improvements, appliances, and cooking and water heating energy use continues to
grow through 2050 as their usage loads are expected to increase with rising household incomes
and living standards. Rural residential energy demand peaks in 2020, 20 years earlier than
urban residential energy demand, as a result of the continued shift of residents from rural to
urban households.
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