China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 117
Although the transport of freight around China is expected to more than triple in terms of
tonne-kilometers (tkm) between 2015 and 2050 in tandem with continued growth of the
economy, energy consumption for freight transport is expected to rise more modestly in the
China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement scenario. The increase is about 36%
over this period (Figure 3-14). This is primarily due to continued increases in the operational
efficiency of each mode of travel, in particular for trucks, which will decrease fuel use per tkm
by about 40% compared to current levels. In addition, improved truck logistics allows
reductions in empty loads, thus increasing total tkm per truck as well. Spurred by an already
high level of oil import dependence, an increasing number of trucks have been converted to run
on LNG, and this trend will continue throughout the period with natural gas’s share of freight
final energy consumption rising from a mere 3% in 2015 to 25% in 2050 (Figure 3-14).
Petroleum’s share of freight energy consumption, in contrast, peaks around 2025 and declines
thereafter as a result of gradual fuel switching towards LNG and some plug-in diesel hybrids,
but still accounts for 68% of freight energy consumption by 2050. Diesel, jet kerosene, and fuel
oil are the major petroleum products consumed. In the China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement scenario, emerging alternatives such as battery electric vehicle (EV)
trucks or hydrogen fuel-cell trucks are not seen, although studies to assess their potential are
ongoing.
Figure 3-14. Freight Transport Final Energy Consumption by Fuel, China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
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