China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 12
capacity for renewable electricity sources, China installed 175 GW of solar by 2018, exceeding
the 2020 goal of 110 GW. China is on track to meet or exceed the hydropower capacity goal
(352 GW installed; 2020 goal of 380 GW), wind power capacity goal (184 GW installed; 2020
goal of 210 GW), and the nuclear power capacity goal (45 GW installed; 2020 goals of 58 GW).
In April 2017, China released the Energy Supply and Consumption Revolution Strategy (20162030) that reiterates a number of its 2020 national energy goals and also sets additional goals
for 2030 (NDRC and NEA, 2016). The new 2030 goals are to cap China’s absolute primary energy
consumption at or below 6,000 Mtce, increase the share of non-fossil energy in total primary
energy to 20%, increase the share of natural gas in total primary energy consumption to 15%,
and strive to have 50% of total power generation from non-fossil sources.
In September 2016, China ratified the Paris Agreement which commits participating parties to
“holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels” (UN, 2018a). China’s specific Paris Agreement commitments, as conveyed through its
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), include peaking CO2 emissions around 2030 and
making best efforts to peak early as well as increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary
energy consumption to around 20% by 2030. China’s 2030 NDCs also include lowering CO2
emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level (UNFCCC, 2018).
China is steadily making progress on both the non-fossil share and CO2 emissions intensity
goals. In 2018, the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption – using China’s
power plant coal consumption conversion methodology – was 13.8%, which is on pace to reach
the 2020 goal of 15%. China’s energy-related CO2 emissions per unit of GDP relative to 2005
have dropped an estimated 47% as of the end of 2018, which is on track to meet the goal of
reducing CO2 emissions intensity by 60%-65% by 2030.
As of the end of 2018, China’s energy-related CO2 emissions have continued to grow,
predominately due to increased combustion of fossil fuels during the 2017 to 2018 period and
are currently estimated to have just surpassed 10 GtCO2, a 4% increase over the 2015 value.
This recent growth in energy-related CO2 emissions will need to peak and begin to decline in
the next decade if China is going to realize a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier.
To achieve its myriad domestic and international energy-related goals, China has established
many policies and programs at the national, subnational, and sectoral levels. Some of these are
relatively new while others are continuations of long-standing efforts. Some are just now in the
pilot stage while others started as pilots and are now larger efforts.
A review of 42 selected policies and programs currently in place in China focused on energy and
related emissions found that China relies on a wide variety of instruments to achieve its goals,
including regulatory/administrative, economic, informational, voluntary, and motivational
policies and programs.
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