China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 122
Primary Energy Use Scenario Comparison
Comparing the China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario to other
similarly defined scenarios published in other recent studies shows similarity in the range of the
projected future primary energy use up to 2030, but with markedly different trends in the later
years through 2050 (Figure 3-18).26 Between 2010 through 2035, the China Energy Outlook’s
2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario falls within the range of other projected primary
energy use of between a low of 3280 Mtce in 2010 to a high of nearly 5400 Mtce in the peak
year of 2029.
Figure 3-18. Comparison of Primary Energy Use Projections by Scenario
Note: Annual data points for other projections are interpolated between published milestone values. Primary
energy use totals have not been normalized to account for differences in converting non-fossil electricity
generation into primary energy equivalent.
Berkeley Lab’s China Energy Outlook 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario’s projected
primary energy use has a notably different shape than other projections, with plateauing in the
mid-2025s, a peak in 2029, and significant declines thereafter. While the State Grid outlook also
shows a peak in energy use of around 5650 Mtce in 2030 and general plateauing thereafter and
the China National Renewable Energy Center projects an unspecified primary energy use peak
26
We have not attempted to normalize primary energy use totals to account for differences in conversion methods
for converting non-fossil electricity generation into primary energy equivalent due to incomplete information and
data from some studies.
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