China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 123
in 2025, none of the other similar scenarios by the other organizations show a marked decline
in energy use prior to 2050. Given the similar starting point and close range in projected energy
use in the early 2020s, this divergence in trend is likely due to accounting for saturation effects
in consumption, ownership, construction and thus industrial activity as the population peaks in
2030 and begins to decline, along with a combination of more aggressive efficiency and fuel
switching, as well as accounting of more saturation effects in the China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario.
CO2 Emissions Scenario Comparison
In terms of energy-related CO2 emissions, CREO 2018’s Stated Policy Scenario has the earliest
CO2 peak projected for 2020, at a level consistent with projected CO2 emissions for 2020 by the
China Energy Outlook and State Grid’s Outlook. The IEA, ExxonMobil, State Grid, and China
Energy Outlook all project a CO2 emissions peak for China in 2025 under their scenarios, albeit
at differing peak levels (Figure 3-19). The China Energy Outlook’s Continuous Improvement
Scenario’s CO2 emissions peak level of 10.9 GtCO2 is the highest amongst the four 2025
projected CO2 peaks27, slightly higher than State Grid’s projected peak of 10.7 GtCO2, and much
higher than ExxonMobil Outlook’s projected CO2 peak of 9.6 GtCO2. Sinopec also finds a peak
before 2030 (with unspecified year) in their outlook, with a peak level in the mid-range of other
projected 2025 emission peaks. China’s Energy Research Institute finds a peak in 2030 around
11 GtCO2, followed by a plateau thereafter, under their Low Carbon scenario.
Figure 3-19. Comparison of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Projections by Scenario
Note: Annual data points for other projections are interpolated between published milestone values.
27
The higher emissions peak of CEO is likely due to accounting differences that lead to differing 2010 starting
points.
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