China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 126
Under the Stated Policies Scenario, IEA finds that China’s primary energy consumption28
continues to grow but at a slower pace between 2030 to 2040, growing from 5441 Mtce in
2030 to only 5680 Mtce in 2040. In terms of fuel mix, electricity replaces coal and oil as the
main source for energy consumption by 2040, representing 35% of total final energy
consumption, followed by oil and coal, which accounts for 26% and 16% of total final energy
consumption, respectively. From an end-use perspective, industry and building sectors remain
key drivers of energy demand, particularly for electricity, and together accounts for 68% of
energy consumption in 2040. Industry sector’s share declines to 43% in 2040, while building
sector energy consumption continues to grow due to growth in residential building floorspace
and higher energy demand for heating, cooling, and appliance usage. As a result of fuel
switching, energy-related CO2 emissions peak by 2025 at 10.0 billion tons of CO2.
BP: BP 2019 Energy Outlook
BP publishes its global energy outlook annually. This is used to aid corporate analysis and
decision-making, and includes a China-specific outlook through 2040. Its 2019 Energy Outlook,
the Evolving Transition (ET) scenario, which assumes that government policies, technology and
social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and speed seen over the recent past,
contains a baseline scenario as well as alternative side scenarios focused on specific policies or
fuels (BP, 2019c).
Under the ET scenario, China’s GDP will grow at an average rate of 4.6% per year from 2017 to
2040, compared to energy demand growth at an average rate of 1.1% to 2040. Total energy
consumption will increase from 4,490 Mtce to 5,744 Mtce.29 In terms of fuel mix, rapid growth
in natural gas at 4.4% annually and non-fossil electricity at 5.1% annually will help displace coal
consumption, which falls by 700 Mtce in 2040 compared to 2017 levels. By sector, the fastest
growth is expected from buildings and transportation. Non-combust fuels for feedstock,
including for plastics, is another major source of energy demand growth, at an average rate of
2.3% through 2040. Industrial energy consumption will remain relatively flat from 2017 levels,
and account for half of total energy consumption by 2040. Under the ET scenario, China’s CO2
emissions are projected to peak as early as 2022.
ExxonMobil: 2019 Outlook for Energy
Similar to BP, ExxonMobil also publishes a global energy outlook that represents its view of
energy demand and supply. It is used to inform long-term business strategies and investment
planning. The outlook consists of only one scenario, which is based on likely trends in
28
IEA uses the physical energy content method for converting electricity generation into primary energy
equivalent, and assumes 33% conversion efficiency for nuclear and solar thermal generation, 100% conversion
efficiency for wind, solar photovoltaic, and tidal generation, and 10% conversion efficiency for geothermal
generation.
29
BP uses the substitution method for converting electricity generation into primary energy equivalent, and
assumes 38% conversion efficiency (global average thermal power generation) for nuclear, hydro and renewable
generation.
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