China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 127
technology, policy, consumer preferences, geopolitics, and economic development, similar to a
baseline scenario.
For China, the 2019 Outlook for Energy finds that primary energy consumption will see
moderate growth out to 2040 at an average growth rate of 0.8%, reaching 5.1 Btce in 2030 and
5.3 Btce in 2040. This is much slower than the annual GDP growth rate of 4.7% expected
through 2040, tripling of per capita GDP by 2040. China’s energy-related CO2 emissions is
expected to peak at around 9.6 GtCO2 in 2025, and gradually decline to 8.5 GtCO2 by 2040. In
the power sector, coal generation is assumed to remain relatively constant through 2040 but
non-fossil share of total electricity generation will reach nearly 50% by 2040.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF): New Energy Outlook 2019
Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s New Energy Outlook 2019 focuses specifically on the global
electricity sector and includes a regional focus on China. It finds that China’s coal generation
and related emissions will peak in 2027, when renewables also reach 37% penetration share. By
2050, China is expected to have 1.3 TW of solar photovoltaic installed capacity, 1.2 TW of wind
installed capacity, and 182 GW of nuclear installed capacity. In 2050, China’s wind and solar will
account for 48% of total electricity generation.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec): 2019 China Energy and Petrochemical
Industry Development Report
China’s oil and gas company, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), publishes an
annual report on the status of national energy and petrochemical industry development as well
as its own energy outlook for China. In the energy outlook in its 2019 annual report, Sinopec
expects China’s total primary energy consumption to peak at around 2045 with 6 Btce. Coal
consumption will continue to decline and accounts for 34% of total primary energy
consumption by 2050, nearly the same as non-fossil energy sources. Oil consumption will peak
around 2030 with 720 million tons of oil, while natural gas consumption does not peak until
2050 with total consumption of 700 billion cubic meters. Refined oil demand will peak around
2027 at 370 million tons, and transportation fuel will gradually be replaced by petrochemical
feedstock as the major refining product by 2050. Non-fossil energy sources will account for 35%
of total primary energy consumption by 2050. In the power sector, non-fossil installed capacity
will total over 2800 GW and generate 7300 TWh in 2050. China’s CO2 emissions will peak before
2030 at around 9.9 billion tons CO2.
China National Petroleum Corporation Research Institute of Economics and Technology:
World and China Energy Outlook to 2050, 2018 version.
China’s largest major oil and gas corporation, the China National Petroleum Corporation
(CNPC), publishes an annual World and China Energy Outlook to 2050 under its Research
Institute of Economics and Technology. In its 2018 Outlook, CNPC projects that China’s primary
energy consumption will plateau and peak between 2035 to 2040 at around 5.6 Btce under its
Reference Scenario. By 2050, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP will reach a level
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