China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 128
similar to that of Japan in 2016, and one that is 74% lower than China’s 2015 level. China’s
energy-related CO2 emissions will peak between 2025 to 2030, consistent with China’s NDC,
and coal, oil and gas, and non-fossil fuels will all contribute equally to China’s total energy
supply by 2030. After 2030, natural gas consumption will continue to grow, driven by rising
demand from industry, household, and power generation sectors and total demand will grow to
690 bcm by 2050. Oil demand is projected to peak around 2030 at 700 million tons, and oil used
as feedstock will also increase, while transport fuel’s share will decrease. In terms of end-use
sectors, industrial energy consumption will peak by 2025 while energy consumption in
transportation sector will plateau around 2030, and energy consumption in buildings sector will
continue to grow slowly. By 2050, electricity will account for 38.5% of total final energy
consumption.
State Grid Energy Research Institute: China Energy and Electricity Outlook 2018
In addition to the national energy outlooks published by China’s two key oil and gas
corporations, China’s state-owned electric utility, State Grid, also publishes its China Energy and
Electricity Outlook annually. The State Grid Energy Research Institute’s China Energy and
Electricity Outlook 2018 includes a baseline scenario, the Normal Transition Scenario, and a
more aggressive High Electrification Scenario that considers higher electrification rates, faster
energy efficiency improvement, lower renewable and storage costs and a more flexible grid.
Under the Normal Transition Scenario, China’s primary energy consumption peaks at around
5.80 Btce by 2040, and reaches current international advanced levels of energy consumption
per unit of GDP by 2035. Electricity will surpass coal as the main energy form for meeting final
energy demand by 2025, and non-fossil share of electricity generation will reach 60% by 2035
and 78% by 2050. Onshore wind and solar will experience the fastest growth in installed
capacity, accounting for over 50% of total installed capacity by 2050. Coal installed capacity will
peak around 2025 to 2030. Total electricity demand will continue to grow and reach 12,400
TWh in 2050. In terms of primary energy consumption, non-fossil share will rise from 26% in
2030 to 45% in 2050. By end-use, final energy demand growth is driven primarily by the
building sector prior to 2030, and then by the transport sector after 2030. In 2030, industry,
building and transport sectors account for 40%, 30%, and 30% of total final energy demand,
respectively. In terms of CO2 emissions, China’s energy-related CO2 is projected to peak around
2025 at 10.7 billion tons of CO2, and decline to 6.8 billion tons CO2 by 2050. The 2050 CO2
emissions level is similar to the 2005 level, but with 10-fold growth in national GDP. In other
words, CO2 intensity per unit of GDP reduces by over 50% in 2020, over 70% in 2030, and 90%
by 2050, compared to the 2005 level.
China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC): China Renewable Energy Outlook (CREO)
2018
The China National Renewable Energy Centre, under China’s national government energy thinktank the Energy Research Institute, publishes an annual China Renewable Energy Outlook
(CREO) that focuses primarily on renewable development but also includes its outlook of
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