China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 13
More than half of the 42 reviewed policies are predominately regulatory/administrative in
nature. These 24 mandatory policies are found in all sectors and have been generally
successful, although some are struggling while others are just in the pilot phase. Examples of
mandatory policies include the appliance energy efficiency standards and fuel economy
standards for light- and heavy-duty vehicles. To complement these mandatory approaches,
China also is using voluntary components in 15 policies to encourage participation in a more
flexible manner. Examples of policies with voluntary components include the low carbon pilot
cities and provinces and the Energy Efficiency Top-Runner program. Fifteen policies are either
predominately economic or include economic components, such as subsidies, in support of the
overall programmatic goal. Examples include the national emissions trading scheme, Made in
China 2025, and subsidies for New Energy Vehicles. Other strategies are also deployed including
informational (18) with the goal of influencing consumer choices and motivational (11) to
encourage program participation.
Looking forward to 2050, a Continuous Improvement Scenario of China’s future energy outlook
is developed using a detailed bottom-up energy end-use model (China 2050 DREAM) and
assuming China adopts the maximum shares of today’s commercially available, cost-effective
energy efficiency and renewable energy supply by 2050. Under this scenario, China’s primary
energy consumption peaks in 2029 at 5,400 Mtce and reaches a non-fossil share of 29% in
primary energy by 2050 using the direct equivalent method for conversion. By sector, primary
energy use peaks by 2025 for industry, 2034 for buildings, and 2035 for transport. In the power
sector, generation from renewables and other non-fossil fuels replace thermal generation when
environmental merit dispatch is utilized, with non-fossil sources generating 89% of China’s
electricity in 2050. With energy efficiency and fuel switching (especially electrification) in the
energy end use sectors and decarbonization of the power system, China’s CO2 emissions peaks
in 2025 at a level of 10,930 MtCO2 and declines to 5,010 MtCO2 by 2050. CO2 emissions from
industry peak before 2019, around 2030 for buildings, and by 2035 for transport.
Compared to similarly defined scenarios in the latest projections by 9 other international and
China-based organizations, the 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario has a notably different
shape in primary energy use trend than other projections, with plateauing in the mid-2025s,
peak in 2029, and significant declines thereafter. Only two other Chinese studies project a peak
in primary energy use between 2025-2030, and none of the other similar scenarios show a
marked decline in energy use prior to 2050. Given similar trends in the near-term, this
divergence in trend is likely due to more aggressive efficiency and fuel switching assumptions
and accounting of more saturation effects in the China Energy Outlook 2050 Continuous
Improvement Scenario.
In terms of energy-related CO2 emissions, the Continuous Improvement Scenario finds a 2025
CO2 peak year consistent with projections by two other international and a Chinese
organization, but at a higher peak level. Similar to projections by two Chinese organizations, the
Continuous Improvement Scenario also finds rapid decline in CO2 emissions after 2030, but with
a 2050 CO2 level that is lower than nearly all the other studies. The Continuous Improvement
Scenario’s projected non-fossil shares of total power generation are very similar to two other
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