China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 152
Appendix 1: Recent China Energy Group Publications
These publications can be downloaded at the links provided below or at:
https://china.lbl.gov/publications.
Modeling and Projections
de la Rue du Can, S., Price, L., Zhou, N., and Phadke, A. "China and India: Energy Service and
Related Material Demand Projections" 38th International Energy Workshop. Paris, France,
2019. http://etapublications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/conference_paper.china_and_india_dream_material_pr
oduction_projections.pdf
Abstract. The main research question being addressed in this paper is what are the key drivers
of energy service and related material demand in China and India given their different stages of
economic development? The paper focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of material
demand and related energy growth in order to identify what subsectors need to be addressed
on a priority basis to develop sustainable pathways to support the forecasted economic growth
in both countries. This paper presents detailed assumptions on manufacturing activity and
energy intensity to project energy consumption for material production as well as information
on fuels and fuel-switching to project energy-related CO2 emissions. The study describes in
detail the methodology and underlying assumptions to develop a bottom-up, transparent
baseline scenario to 2050 for both China and India that includes no major new technology
breakthroughs and no newly adopted policies. This baseline scenario is developed to form the
basis for future development of alternative material production and energy consumption
scenarios for policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions.
Lin, J., Fridley, D., Lu, H., Price, L., and Zhou, N., 2018. "Has coal use peaked in China: Nearterm trends in China's coal consumption" Energy Policy 123: 208-214.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.058
Abstract. Coal combustion to power China's factories, generate electricity, and heat buildings
has increased continually since Chinese energy use statistics were first published in 1981. From
2013 until 2015, however, this trend reversed and coal use declined from 2810 million metric
tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 2752 Mtce, leading to a levelling off of China's overall CO2
emissions. Some analysts have declared that China's coal consumption may have peaked.
Preliminary data, however, indicate that coal consumption increased in 2017. To understand
future near-term trends in China's coal consumption, we analyze a number of important drivers
of coal use and find projected increases in electricity demand that cannot be met by other
fossil-fuel or non-fossil-fuel electricity sources, as well as projected increases in coal use in light
manufacturing, other non-industrial sectors, and for transformation. We find that these
projected increases will lead to near-term growth in China's coal use to levels of approximately
2900 Mtce to 3050 Mtce in 2020, with associated increases in energy-related CO2 emissions.
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