China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 154
non-conventional electric and renewable technologies present additional CO2 reduction
opportunities for China, but new policies and strategies are needed to change technology
choices in the demand sectors. Managing the pace of electrification in tandem with the pace of
decarbonization of the power sector will also be crucial to achieving CO2 reductions from the
power sector in a scenario of increased electrification.
Jiang, L., Khanna, N., Liu, X., Teng, F., and Wang, X. “China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas
Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential” Scientific Reports
9, 16095 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41598-019-52653-0
Abstract. Forecasts indicate that China’s non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent
(CO2e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO2 GHG emissions in China have
focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a
novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China’s non-CO2 GHGs under a
Mitigation Scenario whereby today’s cost-effective and technologically feasible CO2 and nonCO2 mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO2
GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could
reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023.
Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO2
GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective
mitigation potentials identified in this study.
Emissions Trading
Huang, H., Roland-Holst, D., Springer, C., Lin, J., Cai, W., and Wang, C. "Emissions trading
systems and social equity: A CGE assessment for China" Applied Energy 235 (2019) 1254 1265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.056
Abstract. Carbon dioxide emissions trading systems (ETS) are an important market-based
mitigation strategy and have been applied in many regions. This study evaluates the potential
for a national ETS in China. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with
detailed representations of economic activity, emissions, and income distribution, we examine
alternative mitigation policies from now until 2050. Based on statistical and survey data, we
disaggregate the labor and household sectors and simulate the impacts of ETS policies on the
incomes of different household groups. We find that ETS has the potential to reconcile China’s
goals for sustained, inclusive, and low-carbon economic growth. Results show some key
findings. First, the number of unemployed people in energy-intensive industries such as coal
and construction will continue to increase; by 2050, employment in the coal industry will
decline by 75%. Second, if the scope of the carbon market extends to all industries in China,
carbon market revenues will continue to increase, reaching a maximum of 2278 billion yuan
($336 billion) in 2042 to become the world's largest carbon market. Third, the distribution of
benefits from the national ETS can help achieve greater social equity. By comparing different
distribution policies, we find that the combination of targeted subsidies for unemployed coal
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