China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 157
Abstract. China’s electricity system is the world’s largest, in terms of installed generating
capacity, and is also the world’s largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2015,
China embarked on reforms in its electricity sector that aim to introduce market mechanisms in
wholesale pricing. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and carbon
dioxide (CO2) emission impacts of transitioning to electricity markets in China, focusing on
Guangdong Province. We find that market reforms deliver significant annual cost savings (21 to
63 billion yuan, 9%–27% reduction in total costs in a base case) to consumers in Guangdong,
with smaller production cost savings (12 billion yuan, 13% reduction in production costs in a
base case). Savings for consumers are accompanied by a large reduction in net revenues for
coal and natural gas generators, raising concerns about generator solvency, longer-term
resource adequacy, and the need for transition mechanisms. Market reforms increase CO2
emissions in Guangdong, as a result of gas-to-coal switching, though higher hydropower
imports from neighboring provinces could offset these emissions. CO2 pricing has a limited
impact on CO2 emissions in the short run and has the potential to lead to significant wealth
transfers. The most important benefit of market reforms will be in providing an economic
framework for longer-term operations and investment.
Buildings Energy Use
Zhou, N., Khanna, N., Feng, W., Ke, J. Levine, M. “Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2
emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050” Nature Energy
(2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6
Abstract. As China’s rapid urbanisation continues and urban dwellers become more affluent,
buildings will exhibit a great potential for rapid growth in energy use. To understand how this
growth can be slowed, we explore four scenarios for Chinese buildings, ranging from high
energy demand (HI) scenario of no new energy policies to lowest energy demand under technoeconomic potential (TEP) scenario assuming full deployment of cost-effective efficient and
renewable technologies by 2050. We show that even in the highest scenario (HI), building
energy demand has an average annual growth rate that is only 60% that of GDP (2.8% vs. 4.6%)
with slower growth rates in the other three scenarios. In all scenarios, CO2 emissions grow
slower than energy with building CO2 peaking around 2045 in HI, and as early as 2030 in TEP.
We find that technologies, systems, and practices can be very effective in minimizing building
energy use but rigorous policies are needed to overcome multiple implementation barriers.
Hou, T., Cai, W., Ren, H., Feng, W., Zhu, M., Lang, N., and Gao, J. "China's building stock
estimation and energy intensity analysis" Journal of Cleaner Production 207 (2019) 801 - 813.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.060
Reliable and objective data regarding building stock are essential for predicting and analyzing
energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. However, China's building stock data are lacking.
This study proposes a set of China building floor space estimation methods (CBFSM) based on
the improved building stock turnover model. It then measures China's building stocks by
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