China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 162
Appendix 2: Scenario Comparison Summary
Summary of International and Chinese Modeling Study Scenarios’ Key Results Comparisons
Outlook
Key Energy Findings
Berkeley Lab’s China Energy
Outlook
China will meet its 2020 and 2030 goals to
cap primary energy consumption by 5000
Mtce and 6000 Mtce, respectively.
China will fall short of meeting its 2030
goal of >15% natural gas (
20% nonfossil energy (19.7%).
China will nearly meet its 2030
goal of >50% renewable
generation (45%).
In 2050, China’s non-fossil energy
installed capacity will be over
2800 GW, generating 7300 TWh
of electricity.
China will meet its goal to
peak CO2 emissions by 2030
or earlier.
China will reach CO2
emissions peak before 2030
at around 9.9 billion tons.
Non-fossil reaches 1.4 btoe (2
Mtce) by 2050 accounting for
35% of total primary energy.
By 2025, electricity will replace
coal as the top energy for final
energy demand.
Energy-related CO2
emissions peak around 2025
at about 10.7 GtCO2.
Non-fossil share of electricity
reaches 60% in 2035 and 78% in
2050.
Under the normal transition
scenario, CO2 emissions
reduce to 6.8 GtCO2 in 2050.
Non-fossil share of primary
energy use reaches 37% in 2040
and 45% in 2050.
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Key CO2 Emissions Findings