China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 165
Appendix 3: China Energy Outlook Continuous Improvement Scenario
Assumptions for End-Use Sectors
Industrial Sector Activity and Technology Assumptions
Continuous Improvement
Scenario
2050
2010
Sectoral Activity Demand
Total industry value added
11 RMB trillion (2005)
Share of low-value-added, energy30%
intensive industry (value-added basis)
Steel Production (million tons)
637
66 RMB trillion (2005)
20%
Cement Production (million tons)
1882
1496
Energy intensity (EI) values for subsectors modeled on physical basis
EI based on government
statistical data
Steel sector averaged final EI (tce/t)
0.67
EI improves to meet or
slightly exceeds 2015
advanced economies’ levels
0.33
Cement sector averaged final EI
(tce/t)
EI values for sub-sectors modeled on
value-added basis
0.128
0.081
EI based on government
statistical data
EI improves to meet or
slightly exceeds 2015
advanced economies’ levels
Coal (including coke): 60%
Gas: 3%
Electricity: 19%
Petroleum: 10%
Other (including heat): 8%
Coal (including coke): 29%
Gas: 11%
Electricity: 41%
Petroleum: 11%
Other (including heat): 9%
619
Energy Efficiency Improvement
Fuel Switching
Sectoral Fuel Mix*
151