China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 166
Building Sector Activity and Technology Assumptions
2010
Building Activity Demand
Total residential floor area
Urban residential:
proportion of pre-2010
existing building stock that
is retrofitted
Urban residential:
proportion total floorspace
that is new, post-2010
constructed
Total commercial floor area
Commercial retrofit:
proportion of retrofitted
pre-2010 existing building
stock
Commercial: proportion of
new, post-2010
constructed buildings of
total floorspace
Building vintage shares of
pre-2010 existing buildings
stock
Building vintage shares of
post-2010 new buildings
stock
Building load changes:
space heating
Building load changes:
cooling
Continuous Improvement Scenario 2050
40.8 billion square
meters
2% of existing
stock of buildings
built before 2010
62.9 billion square meters
0%
2020: 43%
2030: 64%
2040: 79%
2050: 89%
23.4 billion square meters
75% of existing stock of buildings built before 2010
11.9 billion square
meters
0.4% of stock
75% of existing stock of buildings built before 2010
0%
98% no retrofits,
2% current best
practice retrofits
100% current best
practice new
buildings, 0% ultralow energy
buildings
2020: 46%
2030: 63%
2040: 77%
2050: 87%
Non-linear decline of no retrofits to 65% in 2020, 45%
in 2030, 33% in 2040, and 25% in 2050. In North
China, increase of best possible retrofits to 7% in
2020, 16% in 2030, and 50% in 2050. In Transition
zone, increase of best possible retrofits to 5% in
2020, 12% in 2030 and 30% in 2050. In South China,
increase of best possible retrofits to 2.5% in 2020, 6%
in 2030 and 15% in 2050. Current best practice
retrofits is the remaining share.
Increase of ultra-low energy buildings to 50% by 2050
in North China, 20% by 2050 in Transition zone, and
10% by 2050 in South China. Current best practice
new buildings is the remaining share.
Heating loads increase from 2010 to 2050 in North,
Transition and South (urban only) China due to
demand for greater thermal comfort. Specific loads
differ by building vintage types.
Cooling loads increase significantly from 2010 to 2050
in all climate zones (particularly Transition and South)
due to demand for greater thermal comfort
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