China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 167
Residential Building Efficiency Improvements
Appliance and equipment
100% adoption of
efficiency improvements
current existing
technology in 2010
Residential Building Fuel Switching
Fuel switching: heating
Fuel switching: cooking
Linear shift to 100% adoption of current
superefficient technology by 2050
Urban: faster penetration of air source heat pump to
10% by 2050 with lower gas district heating shares.
Rural: a phase out of all coal stoves by 2050, replaced
by growing shares of biomass, solar thermal, air
source heat pump and some coal boilers.
Urban: complete phase out of all coal-based cooking
and faster decline of liquified petroleum gas (LPG)
cookers, replaced with greater shares of electric
cookers and natural gas cookers.
Rural: complete phase-out of coal stoves and
declining shares of LPG cookers, replaced by electric
cookers and biomass.
Fuel switching: urban water
Faster decline in electric heaters and replaced by
heating
faster growth in solar water heaters to 50% by 2050.
Natural gas water heaters decline slightly.
Commercial Buildings Energy Demand and Efficiency Improvements
Building load changes:
Lower (but still rising) heating loads for best possible
space heating
retrofits and ultra-low energy buildings due to
superior design and thermal insulation
Building load changes:
Lower (but still rising) cooling loads for best possible
cooling
retrofits and ultra-low energy buildings in all climate
zones
Equipment efficiency
100% adoption of
100% adoption of current superefficient technology
improvements
current existing
by 2050
technology
Heating Efficiency:
North: 63%
North: 81%
Transition: 66%
Transition: 117%
South: N/A
South: N/A
Cooling Efficiency:
North: 100%
North: 258%
Transition: 100%
Transition: 258%
South: 100%
South: 258%
Commercial Building Fuel Switching*
Fuel switching: cooling
Geothermal heat pumps phase out by 2050, replaced
by more centralized air conditioning
Fuel switching: water
Complete phase out of coal and oil boilers and rapid
heating
decline of gas boilers shares, replaced by 45% solar
water heaters, 10% air source heat pumps, and 14%
small cogeneration by 2050.
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