China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 60
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), include peaking CO2 emissions around 2030 and
making best efforts to peak early as well as increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary
energy consumption to around 20% by 2030. China’s 2030 NDCs also include lowering CO2
emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level (UNFCCC, 2018).
China is steadily making progress on both the non-fossil share and CO2 emissions intensity
goals. In 2018, the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption – using China’s
power plant coal consumption conversion methodology – was 13.8%, which is on pace to reach
the 2020 goal of 15%. China’s energy-related CO2 emissions per unit of GDP relative to 2005
have dropped an estimated 47% as of the end of 2018, which is on track to meet the goal of
reducing CO2 emissions intensity by 60%-65% by 2030.
As of the end of 2018, China’s energy-related CO2 emissions have continued to grow,
predominately due to increased combustion of fossil fuels during the 2017 to 2018 period (see
Table 2-2) and are currently estimated to have just surpassed 10 GtCO2, a 4% increase over the
2015 value. This recent growth in energy-related CO2 emissions will need to peak and begin to
decline in the next decade if China is going to realize a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 or
earlier.
Table 2-2. China’s Primary Energy and Energy-Related CO2 Emissions, 2015-2018.
2015
2016
2017
2018*
Coal (Mtce)
2739
2703
2711
2740
Petroleum (Mtce)
787
798
844
899
Natural gas (Mtce)
254
279
320
370
Primary electricity (Mtce)**
520
580
614
620
Total primary energy consumption (Mtce)
4,299
4360
4490
4,620
Energy-related CO2 emissions (MtCO2)
9,747
9,714
9,906
~10,000
Sources: NBS, 2019c; NBS, various years; IPCC, 2006***
Notes: *estimated
**The energy value of primary electricity (e.g., renewables, nuclear) was converted using China’s own Power Plant
Coal Consumption method in which electricity sources are converted to standard units based on the average heat
rate of Chinese coal-fired power plants each year. For a comparison of China’s electricity conversion method to
those used internationally, see Lewis et al., 2015.
***China’s reported energy consumption converted to CO2 emissions using the IPCC’s 2006 CO2 emissions factors.
46