China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 64
Double Control Program
Overall, the Double Control Program is meeting its energy intensity goal, while struggling
to meet its energy consumption goal due to the recent growth in both electricity demand
and overall energy use in China.
China’s 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) and Energy Supply and Consumption Revolution Strategy
(2016-2030), call for control of both total energy consumption and energy intensity (energy use
per unit of value-added) (State Council, 2016a). These “Double Control” targets will cap China’s
absolute primary energy consumption – which was 4.3 Btce in 2015 – at or below 5 Btce and 6
Btce by 2020 and 2030, respectively, and reduce China’s energy intensity by 15% from 2015
levels by 2020 (State Council, 2016a). Under this Double Control program, provincial
governments are responsible for implementation of absolute energy consumption targets and
energy intensity reduction targets that have been allocated to each province. NDRC has been
carrying out annual performance examinations and reviews to determine if provinces are
meeting their allocated targets (Tian, 2019).
The recent growth in both electricity demand (8.4% between 2017 and 2018) and primary
energy use (4% between 2017 and 2018) throughout China is making it difficult for the country
to achieve the 2020 energy consumption control target (NBS, 2019c). New provincial projects
that drive provincial GDP – but also increase energy use - are being built, leading to further
expected increases in primary energy consumption in the last two years of 13th FYP. Four
provinces (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Ningxia, and Xinjiang) have already consumed energy
significantly greater than they should have at this point in the program. All of the other
provinces are on track to consume less energy – and some significantly less energy – than their
allocated 2020 Double Control Program energy consumption targets (NBS, 2018b).
Regarding the energy intensity reduction targets, 28 out of 30 provinces are on track to meet
their energy intensity reduction goals. Hubei, Guangdong, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, and
Qinghai have already completed and exceeded their energy intensity reduction goals. Only
Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are not on track, with Ningxia’s energy intensity actually increasing
by over 20% (NBS, 2018b).
100-1000-10,000 Program
While designed to complement China’s Double Control targets, the new 100-1000-10,000
Program has had less impact to date compared with its predecessor Top-1000 and Top-10000
programs due to its slow start.
China’s Key Energy-Consuming 100-1000-10,000 Organizations Action was launched in
November 2017 to play a supporting role in China’s achievement of its “Double Control” targets
(NDRC, 2017a). As described above, the national “Double Control” targets are allocated to each
province; these provincial targets are further allocated to the provincial 100-1000-10,000
program enterprises.
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