China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 103
Chapter 3: China’s Future Energy Use Outlook
Introduction
This chapter presents the results of a China Energy Outlook 2050 Continuous Improvement
Scenario for China’s future energy and energy-related emissions using the Berkeley Lab’s China
Energy Group China 2050 Demand Resources Energy Analysis Model (China 2050 DREAM).20
This Continuous Improvement Scenario assumes that China will fully adopt the maximum
feasible shares of today’s commercially available, cost-effective energy efficiency and
renewable energy supply by 2050. The underlying assumption of the technologies and
measures adopted in this scenario is that China will develop and effectively implement all
necessary supporting policies and measures, and overcome any existing barriers or challenges
to full adoption by 2050. The China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario
results are also compared with similarly defined scenarios in eight other recent outlooks for
China, including four by Chinese domestic institutions and four by international institutions. The
China 2050 DREAM model results show much lower energy and CO2 emissions than scenarios
developed by other major Chinese and international organizations.21 This is reminiscent of the
Berkeley Lab scenarios from a study in 2010-11 that showed peaking of energy-related CO2
emissions by 2030 and possibly as early as 2025 depending on policies considered, which was
much earlier than the prevailing scenarios at that time. In 2014, just four years later, China
committed to peak its energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 as part of its intended nationally
determined contributions under the Paris Agreement.
China 2050 DREAM is comprised of a demand module consisting of five demand subsectors
(residential buildings, commercial buildings, industry, transport, and agriculture) and a
transformation module consisting of energy production, transmission, and distribution
subsectors. Using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) platform (Heaps, 2019),
the China 2050 DREAM captures diffusion of end-use technologies and macroeconomic and
sector-specific drivers of energy demand as well as the energy required to extract fossil fuels
and produce energy and a power sector with distinct generation dispatch algorithms.
20
The China Energy Group has developed and used the China 2050 DREAM model to characterize past and future
Chinese energy consumption, evaluate the energy and emissions impact of specific policies in the buildings,
industrial, transportation, and power sectors, analyze the environmental impacts of CO2 and SO2 co-controls, and
perform policy and technical efficiency scenario analysis. We have also previously created medium- and long-term
energy and emissions scenarios to 2030 and 2050 for China, and evaluated the potential gaps between domestic
energy supply and demand. The model has also been used to assess conventional, non-fossil, and nonconventional supply options for China and their potential contributions to future low-emissions pathways. Most
recently, the China Energy Group has further refined and aligned modeling methodologies and assumptions of the
DREAM Model in joint collaboration with China's Energy Research Institute and Rocky Mountain Institute on the
Reinventing Fire: China project to evaluate the maximum energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reductions available
both in terms of technology and policy in China in 2050. For more information, see https://china.lbl.gov/dream
21
The China National Renewable Organization has a slightly lower CO2 emissions in 2050.
89