China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 116
2030 and 2039, when total final energy consumption peaks, growth in commercial building
energy consumption begins to slow to an average rate of 0.9% per year. Equipment and water
heating energy consumption continues to rise through 2050, with its share of total energy
consumption rising from 10% and 13% in 2015, respectively, to 25% and 15%, respectively, in
2050 (Figure 3-13). Energy consumption by the other end-uses of heating, cooling, and lighting
begins declining in the late 2030s.
Figure 3-13. Commercial Buildings Final Energy Consumption by End-Use, China Energy Outlook’s
2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario (2015-2050)
Note: Commercial building equipment includes all commercial building plugloads such as office equipment and
other building operating equipment such as elevators and refrigeration.
An important way to reduce building sector CO2 emissions is to switch fossil fuel-based energy
end use to electricity. As the electric grid in China integrates more and more clean energy
leading to a decrease of per kWh emission factors over time, electrification of building energy
end use can greatly reduce CO2 emissions in the building sector. In the China Energy Outlook’s
2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario, we considered electrification through increased use of
electric heat pumps for space heating and for water heating, and electric stoves for cooking. At
the same time, rural coal-based space heating is replaced by electric heating and all coal-based
cooking will also be replaced.
102