China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 121
Comparison of China Energy Outlook’s 2050 Continuous Improvement Scenario to Other
China Outlooks
How do the future projections of energy use and energy-related emissions in this China Energy
Outlook compare to those of other international and China-based organizations that analyze
China’s future? This section compares the key findings of the China Energy Outlook’s 2050
Continuous Improvement Scenario to similarly defined scenarios from the following studies
from international and China-based organizations:
International
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2019e)
BP (BP, 2019c)
ExxonMobil (ExxonMobil, 2019)
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF, 2019)
China-Based
China National Renewable Energy Center (CNREC, 2018)
State Grid Energy Research Institute (SGERI, 2019)
China National Petroleum Corporation Research Institute of Economics and Technology
(CNPC, 2018)
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) (Sinopec, 2019)
China Energy Research Institute (Jiang et al., 2018)
The relevant scenarios from the recent modeling studies published by these international and
China-based research organizations are summarized in Table 3-2. We compared the high-level
results in terms of total primary energy consumption outlook, CO2 outlook, and non-fossil share
of electricity generation among the major studies based on available data.
Table 3-2: Summary of International and China-Based Modeling Studies
Organization
Scenario Name
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
International Energy Agency
BP
ExxonMobil
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
China National Renewable Energy Center
China National Petroleum Corporation Research Institute of
Economics and Technology
State Grid Energy Research Institute
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
China Energy Research Institute
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China 2050
Continuous
Improvement
Scenario
Stated Policies
Evolving Transition
N/A
N/A
Stated Policies
Reference
Normal Transition
N/A
Low Carbon Scenario
Scenario Period
2015-2050
to 2040
2017-2040
to 2040
to 2050
2017-2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050