China Energy Outlook 2020 - Flipbook - Page 153
Zhou, N., Price, L., Dai, Y., Creyts, J., Khanna, N., Fridley, D., Lu, H., Feng, W., Liu, X., Hasenbeigi,
A., Tian, Z., Yang, H., Bai, Q., Zhu, Y., Xiong, H., Zhang, J., Chrisman, K., Agenbroad, J., Ke, Y.,
McIntosh, R., Mullaney, D., Stranger, C., Wanless, E., Wetzel, D., Yee, C., and Franconi, E. "A
roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil
fuels in primary energy by 2030" Applied Energy 239 (2019) 793 - 819.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.154
Abstract. As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of
primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world’s
energy-related CO2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its
energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a threeyear joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if
China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and
CO2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to
renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO2
emissions to a level that is 42% below the country’s 2010 CO2 emissions. While numerous
barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to
realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local
environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate
change), human health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is
pursued in China.
Khanna, N., Fridley, D., Zhou, N., Karali, N., Zhang, J., and Feng, W. “Energy and CO2
implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050
maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts” Applied Energy 242
(2019) 12-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.116
Abstract. Energy efficiency has played an important role in helping China achieve its domestic
and international energy and climate change mitigation targets, but more significant near-term
actions to decarbonize are needed to help China and the world meet the Paris Agreement
goals. Accelerating electrification and maximizing supply-side and demand-side renewable
adoption are two recent strategies being considered in China, but few bottom-up modeling
studies have evaluated the potential near-term impacts of these strategies across multiple
sectors. To fill this research gap, we use a bottom-up national end-use model that integrates
energy supply and demand systems and conduct scenario analysis to evaluate even lower CO2
emissions strategies and subsequent pathways for China to go beyond cost-effective efficiency
and fuel switching. We find that maximizing non-conventional electric and renewable
technologies can help China peak its national CO2 emissions as early as 2025, with significant
additional CO2 emission reductions on the order of 7 Gt CO2 annually by 2050. Beyond potential
CO2 reductions from power sector decarbonization, significant potential lies in fossil fuel
displaced by renewable heat in industry. These results suggest accelerating the utilization of
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